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As the AP analysis this morning puts it, “But still … ?” In other words, really? Barack Obama? Nobel Peace Prize? So soon? Nine months? War still going in Iraq? Global Warming legislation bottled in Senate? Iran still defiant? Afghanistan still in need of more U.louis vuitton replicaS. troops? Well, it may seem shocking to Americans, pleasantly for some, disturbingly for others. But in fact, as Ronald Krebs explained in Foreign Policy, the Peace Prize has often been given for aspirational reasons, for potential achievements in the future as much as actual achievements from the past. This is decidedly different from other Nobel prizes, like literature, economics or medicine.gucci handbag for sale The Nobel Peace Prize’s aims are expressly political. The Nobel committee seeks to change the world through the prize’s very conferral, and, unlike its fellow prizes, the peace prize goes well beyond recognizing past accomplishments. As Francis Sejersted, the chairman of the Norwegian Nobel Committee in the 1990s, once proudly admitted, “The prize … is not only for past achievement. … The committee also takes the possible positive effects of its choices into account [because] … Nobel wanted the prize to have political effects.louis vuitton shoes replica Awarding a peace prize is, to put it bluntly, a political act.” It is therefore fair to ask whether the Nobel Peace Prize has changed the world. The committee has insisted that the award works in subtle but perceptible ways to advance the winners’ causes: by raising the profile of organizations and problems, by morally and politically bolstering the forces for peaceful conflict resolution, by attracting international attention to repression, and perhaps ultimately by facilitating pressure for liberalization. Krebs goes on to explain that the Peace Prize aspirations are often unfulfilled.louis vuitton outlet online But the 27 aspirational prizes awarded since 1971 have accomplished far less than the peace prize’s advocates would have us believe. In many of these cases, the media glare was already intense. One would be hard-pressed to argue that the prize had much of an effect on international media coverage of South Africa’s transition from apartheid (1993), the Israeli-Palestinian conflict (1994), or the troubles in Northern Ireland (1998). In cases in which the media was not already saturated, there have been some legitimate successes — notably Aung San Suu Kyi, whose 1991 award seems to have drawn attention to the Burmese predicament.louis vuitton neverfull But a survey of headlines in LexisNexis’s database of “major worldwide newspapers” reveals little evidence that the Nobel Peace Prize has typically boosted international media coverage beyond the short run. I found this to be true of the Dalai Lama and Tibet (1989), Rigoberta Mench炭 and the Guatemalan Civil War (1992), and Shirin Ebadi and reform in Iran (2003), among others. Although the award can boost the personal prominence of individuals with low global media profiles (such as Ebadi or 2004 winner Wangari Maathai), their causes nevertheless seem to continue to languish. In point of fact, it is too soon to know how Obama’s prize will be eventually judged by history.fake uggs As much as a celebration, this prize is another platform, and another responsibility, for Obama to use in the years to come. Hard to believe that the expectations could have gone any higher.
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There is a slight whiff of condescension attending the announcement that Barack Obama has won the Nobel Peace Prize.chanel outlet There is the sense that he has won simply by not being George W. Bush. Effete Europe is congratulating rowdy America for cleaning up its act and not bringing guns to the dinner table. Well, I’m as relieved as anybody that the Bushian gunslingers have been given the gate and, as regular readers know, I’m a big fan of patient, rigorous diplomacy–and there’s a certain lovely irony to any prize that brings the Taliban and the neoconservative Commentary crowd together in high dudgeon–but let’s face it: this prize is premature to the point of ridiculousness.fake gucci shoes It continues a pattern that holds some peril for Obama: he is celebrated for who he is not, and for who he might potentially be, rather than for what he has actually done. If he doesn’t provide results that justify the award, this Nobel will prove a millstone come election time. (See pictures of Obama’s eight months of diplomacy.) And so, how to handle this “triumph” becomes a strategic puzzle that requires serious thought.fake louis vuitton shoes Two immediate thoughts occur: he can’t reject it, but accepting it can’t be about him. He can and should immediately say something like, “I don’t deserve this.” That’s a no brainer. The question is, what should he say after that? (See “Why Winning the Peace Prize Could Hurt Obama”) Perhaps: “But the American people do.louis vuitton belts” For creating and sustaining a stable and civil democracy that is the envy of the world. And he should celebrate the essential American idea: ?that the things we have in common as human beings are more important than the things that divide us. It doesn’t matter who you are, where you come from, whether you believe in God or not–this American principle, the belief in certain inalienable rights, should be the basis for international interactions as well. (See the world reaction to Obama winning the Nobel.handbags louis vuitton) This should be followed by the necessary caveats–the things that conservatives call “apologies” but are required for credibility–especially the idea that we haven’t always abided by our founding principles in dealing with the rest of the world. But enough of the high-blown stuff: the Nobel needs to be an excuse for an action agenda. One idea, which Zbigniew Brzezinski has been touting, would be to announce the parameters for a Middle East peace settlement–and recruit the rest of the world to get behind it. This would not please those Israelis–and their American enablers–who want to hold onto lands that they gained by conquest, nor would it please those Palestinians harboring fantasies of regaining lands they left 60 years ago, but most people have a rough sense of what constitutes justice in this tortured patch of earth and Obama might use his Peace Prize to actually create some peace in the world’s most vexing place.gucci outlet online I’m sure there are other things he can and should do–starting with finding an appropriate place to donate the $1.4 million that comes with the award. I’d give it to Greg Mortenson or someone else who has a successful track record of building schools in difficult places. In the end, this premature prize is a significant challenge for the President: Will Barack Obama use it to demonstrate that he actually has the courage, moral fortitude, intelligence and creativity that the award portends? The expectations bar has always been set impossibly high for Obama.fake uggs This raises it. (See “Obama Wins a Premature Peace Prize”.) UPDATE: Well, the President hit precisely the notes I predicted above in his brief remarks in the Rose Garden. I hope he gives some consideration to a more aggressive peace agenda, especially in the Middle East, in the weeks to come.replica louis vuitton
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There is a slight whiff of condescension attending the announcement that Barack Obama has won the Nobel Peace Prize.gucci outlet online There is the sense that he has won simply by not being George W. Bush. Effete Europe is congratulating rowdy America for cleaning up its act and not bringing guns to the dinner table. Well, I’m as relieved as anybody that the Bushian gunslingers have been given the gate and, as regular readers know, I’m a big fan of patient, rigorous diplomacy–and there’s a certain lovely irony to any prize that brings the Taliban and the neoconservative Commentary crowd together in high dudgeon–but let’s face it: this prize is premature to the point of ridiculousness.fake gucci shoes It continues a pattern that holds some peril for Obama: he is celebrated for who he is not, and for who he might potentially be, rather than for what he has actually done. If he doesn’t provide results that justify the award, this Nobel will prove a millstone come election time. (See pictures of Obama’s eight months of diplomacy.) And so, how to handle this “triumph” becomes a strategic puzzle that requires serious thought.ugg boots outlet Two immediate thoughts occur: he can’t reject it, but accepting it can’t be about him. He can and should immediately say something like, “I don’t deserve this.” That’s a no brainer. The question is, what should he say after that? (See “Why Winning the Peace Prize Could Hurt Obama”) Perhaps: “But the American people do.replica louis vuitton” For creating and sustaining a stable and civil democracy that is the envy of the world. And he should celebrate the essential American idea: ?that the things we have in common as human beings are more important than the things that divide us. It doesn’t matter who you are, where you come from, whether you believe in God or not–this American principle, the belief in certain inalienable rights, should be the basis for international interactions as well. (See the world reaction to Obama winning the Nobel.louis vuitton handbags for sale) This should be followed by the necessary caveats–the things that conservatives call “apologies” but are required for credibility–especially the idea that we haven’t always abided by our founding principles in dealing with the rest of the world. But enough of the high-blown stuff: the Nobel needs to be an excuse for an action agenda. One idea, which Zbigniew Brzezinski has been touting, would be to announce the parameters for a Middle East peace settlement–and recruit the rest of the world to get behind it. This would not please those Israelis–and their American enablers–who want to hold onto lands that they gained by conquest, nor would it please those Palestinians harboring fantasies of regaining lands they left 60 years ago, but most people have a rough sense of what constitutes justice in this tortured patch of earth and Obama might use his Peace Prize to actually create some peace in the world’s most vexing place.replica chanel shoes I’m sure there are other things he can and should do–starting with finding an appropriate place to donate the $1.4 million that comes with the award. I’d give it to Greg Mortenson or someone else who has a successful track record of building schools in difficult places. In the end, this premature prize is a significant challenge for the President: Will Barack Obama use it to demonstrate that he actually has the courage, moral fortitude, intelligence and creativity that the award portends? The expectations bar has always been set impossibly high for Obama.cheap gucci belts This raises it. (See “Obama Wins a Premature Peace Prize”.) UPDATE: Well, the President hit precisely the notes I predicted above in his brief remarks in the Rose Garden. I hope he gives some consideration to a more aggressive peace agenda, especially in the Middle East, in the weeks to come.cheap gucci belts
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Unlike Joe, I did think that rejecting the prize could have been an option for Obama.fake louis vuitton shoes But the President announced in the Rose Garden a few minutes ago that he will accept the award “as a call to action, a call to all nations to confront the common challenges of the 21st century.” And following Joe’s advice, he said of the Nobel Committee’s decision: “I do not view it as recognition of my own accomplishments, but rather as an affirmation of American leadership on behalf of aspirations held by people in all nations.” Does that mean we all get to pass around the medal, like the Stanley Cup? Full text of Obama’s remarks after the jump: REMARKS BY THE PRESIDENT ON WINNING THE NOBEL PEACE PRIZE Rose Garden 11:16 A.M.fake gucci shoes EDT THE PRESIDENT: ?Good morning. ?Well, this is not how I expected to wake up this morning. After I received the news, Malia walked in and said, “Daddy, you won the Nobel Peace Prize, and it is Bo’s birthday!” ?And then Sasha added, “Plus, we have a three-day weekend coming up.” ?So it’s good to have kids to keep things in perspective.ugg boots outlet I am both surprised and deeply humbled by the decision of the Nobel Committee. ?Let me be clear: ?I do not view it as a recognition of my own accomplishments, but rather as an affirmation of American leadership on behalf of aspirations held by people in all nations. To be honest, I do not feel that I deserve to be in the company of so many of the transformative figures who’ve been honored by this prize — men and women who’ve inspired me and inspired the entire world through their courageous pursuit of peace. But I also know that this prize reflects the kind of world that those men and women, and all Americans, want to build — a world that gives life to the promise of our founding documents.fake chanel shoes ?And I know that throughout history, the Nobel Peace Prize has not just been used to honor specific achievement; it’s also been used as a means to give momentum to a set of causes. ?And that is why I will accept this award as a call to action — a call for all nations to confront the common challenges of the 21st century. These challenges can’t be met by any one leader or any one nation. ?And that’s why my administration has worked to establish a new era of engagement in which all nations must take responsibility for the world we seek.handbags louis vuitton ?We cannot tolerate a world in which nuclear weapons spread to more nations and in which the terror of a nuclear holocaust endangers more people. ?And that’s why we’ve begun to take concrete steps to pursue a world without nuclear weapons, because all nations have the right to pursue peaceful nuclear power, but all nations have the responsibility to demonstrate their peaceful intentions. We cannot accept the growing threat posed by climate change, which could forever damage the world that we pass on to our children — sowing conflict and famine; destroying coastlines and emptying cities. ?And that’s why all nations must now accept their share of responsibility for transforming the way that we use energy.gucci handbag for sale We can’t allow the differences between peoples to define the way that we see one another, and that’s why we must pursue a new beginning among people of different faiths and races and religions; one based upon mutual interest and mutual respect. And we must all do our part to resolve those conflicts that have caused so much pain and hardship over so many years, and that effort must include an unwavering commitment that finally realizes that the rights of all Israelis and Palestinians to live in peace and security in nations of their own. We can’t accept a world in which more people are denied opportunity and dignity that all people yearn for — the ability to get an education and make a decent living; the security that you won’t have to live in fear of disease or violence without hope for the future. And even as we strive to seek a world in which conflicts are resolved peacefully and prosperity is widely shared, we have to confront the world as we know it today.chanel handbags for sale ?I am the Commander-in-Chief of a country that’s responsible for ending a war and working in another theater to confront a ruthless adversary that directly threatens the American people and our allies. ?I’m also aware that we are dealing with the impact of a global economic crisis that has left millions of Americans looking for work. ?These are concerns that I confront every day on behalf of the American people. Some of the work confronting us will not be completed during my presidency.louis vuitton outlet online ?Some, like the elimination of nuclear weapons, may not be completed in my lifetime. ?But I know these challenges can be met so long as it’s recognized that they will not be met by one person or one nation alone. ?This award is not simply about the efforts of my administration — it’s about the courageous efforts of people around the world. And that’s why this award must be shared with everyone who strives for justice and dignity — for the young woman who marches silently in the streets on behalf of her right to be heard even in the face of beatings and bullets; for the leader imprisoned in her own home because she refuses to abandon her commitment to democracy; for the soldier who sacrificed through tour after tour of duty on behalf of someone half a world away; and for all those men and women across the world who sacrifice their safety and their freedom and sometime their lives for the cause of peace.louis vuitton replica That has always been the cause of America. ?That’s why the world has always looked to America. ?And that’s why I believe America will continue to lead. Thank you very much.replica chanel shoes
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For the better part of two years, Mitt Romney has been relentless.handbags louis vuitton “Four years ago, candidate Obama came to Nevada, promising to help,” he said in his victory speech after the Nevada caucuses on Saturday night. “Today, Nevada unemployment is over 12%, home values have plummeted, and Nevada’s foreclosure rate is the highest in the nation … Well, Mr. President, Nevada has had enough of your kind of help.” Swap out Nevada for another state, and perhaps some different metrics, and you get what Romney has told countless Republican crowds across the country.louis vuitton speedy The impetus for his candidacy is simple: the economy is bad, so is Obama, and Mitt Romney is the guy with solutions to both problems. So what happens if the economy gets better? The question’s not so far-fetched. Personal income is up, joblessness is down. The economy is far from a full recovery ???prerecession unemployment levels of 4% or 5% could be a decade away or more ???but things are getting better, faster; in presidential elections the direction that the economy is heading is much more important than the numbers themselves.louis vuitton belts And despite Romney’s superhuman adherence to his Obama-as-economic-bugbear narrative, the possibility of sunnier days has not escaped the Republican candidate. In fact, it was once a given for his campaign. (MORE: Romney Rolls in Nevada) “I think President Obama will be difficult to beat in 2012, because I think an incumbent has extraordinary advantages,” Romney said in 2010. “He will do everything he can to get the economy going back again, and most likely ???at least in my view ???the economy will be coming back.louis vuitton belts” He continued: “Recessions do end. The economy recovers. It always has. It always will.louis vuitton handbags for sale” This early stage of Romney’s proto-campaign was marked by a focus not on the domestic economy but on foreign policy. No Apology, the title of Romney’s pre-presidential memoir, wasn’t just an attempt to shrug off charges of political cravenness that dogged him in 2008. The subtitle read The Case for American Greatness, and the book fronted an attack on Obama’s allegedly weak (and fictionally apologetic) foreign policy. As the recovery stalled and Obama kept crossing off bigger and bigger names from the al-Qaeda wanted list, this path became less tenable, and Romney, who had never abandoned an economic message altogether, began to shift more of his time and energy into his domestic argument.loui vuitton (PHOTOS:?Political Pictures of the Week) So, if the pace of the recovery quickens, will Romney return to his crusade against Obama’s foreign policy? It doesn’t seem too likely. According to a new Washington Post/ABC News survey, international affairs and terrorism are two areas in which significantly more Americans trust Obama than Romney.
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Mike Murphy, who advised Mitt back in his Massachusetts days, offers some counsel in the pages of TIME: He should drop the biography-based message.ugg boots outlet Nobody wants a well-intentioned accountant in charge when the house is on fire. For the first time in his professional life, Romney needs to stop thinking and calculating and get stupid. The race now is about his heart. What is his motive? Why is he so famously hardworking? Who does he worry about when he wakes up first thing in the morning? Voters may respect his success, but they do not think they truly know him.gucci outlet online And while the cerebral Romney may recoil at the psychological striptease this requires, it is how people pick their President in modern America. Romney must fill that vacuum or else others will maliciously fill it for him. Subscribers can read the whole column here and it’ll be on newsstands Friday.
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(VIDEO: The Lesser Known New Hampshire Candidates) Among the people who lingered in the parking lot was a devoted performance artist named Vermin Supreme??yes, that’s the name on his driver’s license.replica gucci shoes The perennial presidential candidate comes to New Hampshire every four years with a boot atop his head, a collection of neckties around his neck, and a platform of mandatory tooth-brushing and free ponies for all. After yelling at Paul through a megaphone, Supreme laid out his case: “Strong teeth for a strong America,?? he said through yellowing chompers, while alleging that Paul was siphoning votes from his base of ??malcontents.?? After MoeJoe’s, Paul traveled to a community center for a meeting with homeschoolers. Soon after he arrived, CNN’s Dana Bash questioned Paul’s ability to connect with voters by citing a woman who said she was turned off by Paul’s quick departure from the prior venue.loui vuitton Paul??s campaign manager immediately stopped the interview, telling the reporter she was holding Paul responsible for an incident that had been the media??s fault. Hushed bickering ensued until Paul??s petite wife, Carol, chimed in. A CNN cameraman had pushed her, she said, and told her to ??get out of the way.?? Bash apologized.replica chanel shoes All seemed embarrassed. ??It was just a mob,?? Benton later said. (MORE: “Romney Unscathed in Twin New Hampshire Debates.”) Meanwhile, Paul supporters showed up elsewhere on Monday, sometimes welcoming and sometimes antagonistic.fake gucci shoes Outside one of Rick Santorum??s events, they yelled ??Rick Santorum hates gay people!?? and ??Google him!?? At a Newt Gingrich town hall Monday afternoon, they quietly stood in a line outside the building, their giant banners adorned with peace signs. Gingrich??s meeting in Hudson had been moved from a nearby American Legion hall to a much more spacious high school. Overflow crowds have followed all the candidates this week, and the cafeteria was standing-room only well before Gingrich took the stage. While people lined each wall and filled every aisle, a volunteer coordinator named Pam Smith recounted the week??s skirmishes with Occupy protesters.handbags louis vuitton They had banged on windows and been taken away by police. ??It was a little hairy there,?? she said. It was also a little hairy later that evening at a Mitt Romney event, when another crowd was treated to an Occupy protest at his rally in Bedford. Hundreds of people filed into a school through a gauntlet of Romney volunteers.cheap gucci belts They had signs and door-hangers and advertisements for sign-waving. One group of girls passing out stickers told attendees they would not be admitted to the rally without them (which, of course, wasn??t true). Though it shared the scholastic backdrop, Romney??s event was much grander than Gingrich??s and on a whole different planet from Paul??s afternoon meet-n-greet. There were giant canvas-wrapped flags.louis vuitton belts Camera crews spanned the long back wall like a defensive line. Local policeman stood not only outside, but on stage to watch for suspicious happenings in the crowd. People waited for admittance after a one-in-one-out policy came into effect, like it was a hot Manhattan night club (without the hand stamp). ??Once you??re out, you??re gone,?? a security guard said.handbags louis vuitton (LIST: Top 10 Political Fashion Statements) Even under careful watch, protesters broke through. ??Live free or die! Always Occupy!?? yelled people holding Romney signs that had been turned into Occupy placards. A white-haired Romney supporter tried to take one of the young activist??s signs; the crowd started chanting, ??Mitt! Mitt! Mitt!?? to counter the interrupters. Most of them were quickly forced to occupy the hallway outside the room.replica louis vuitton But Romney gave their cause his attention when a young woman with a ??Get money out of politics?? sign started a new round of yelling. He asked her to explain her grievances in a civil tone. Whispers of ???oh, no,?? spread through the crowd. Luckily for Romney, the protester’s response was essentially just the slogan on her sign.cheap gucci belts He countered that there was someone about to spend $1 billion on a political campaign (Obama) and he wasn??t a Republican. The eruption of approval for Romney’s counter-point drowned out the protester’s follow-up as she was taken from the room. Romney carried on as normal, and proceeded to recount his favorite verses from ??America the Beautiful.?? Because that’s what a candidate does the night before a primary at the height of silly season.louis vuitton shoes replica
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Somersworth, New Hampshire In a final, frantic day of campaigning before Tuesday’s New Hampshire primary, the six Republican presidential hopefuls sought to calibrate expectations for a race from which Mitt Romney’s healthy lead has sapped much of the late drama.cheap gucci belts Romney’s New Hampshire lead has held firm, forcing his rivals to jockey for position with each other as the former Massachusetts governor coasts toward what is likely to be a comfortable victory. The race has tightened slightly in its closing week, but Romney boasts a double-digit lead in every poll, with 33% in Monday’s daily Suffolk University tracking survey, a 13-point lead over Ron Paul, his nearest competitor. Rivals seized Monday on Romney’s comment that he “likes being able to fire people” — which, taken out of context, dovetails neatly into attacks on his record running Bain Capital — but the barrage of criticism is almost certainly too late to jeopardize his edge in the Granite State. Romney doesn’t need to win in a “landslide,” as South Carolina Governor Nikki Haley, a Romney surrogate, said this week.gucci handbag for sale But an unexpected nail-biter could dampen the case for his inevitability. (VIDEO: The Lesser Known New Hampshire Candidates) Behind Romney sits Ron Paul, who appears to have an inside track for second place. Jesse Benton, Paul’s campaign chairman, told TIME that a “strong second” was the worst-case scenario for the Texas congressman, whose loyal band of followers fanned out across the state Monday to enumerate the merits of their candidate outside opponents’ public events. Consecutive strong finishes would vault him into South Carolina and beyond.fake louis vuitton shoes Paul will skip Florida, scrambling instead to rack up delegates in caucus states where his organizational power will be unmatched except by Romney. With the top two slots crystallizing, the three-way battle for third place will likely be where the action is Tuesday. Rick Santorum, whose shoe-leather campaign spurred him to a virtual draw in Iowa, admitted Monday that he won’t duplicate the feat in New Hampshire. “I’d be ecstatic with second place,” Santorum told reporters outside a diner in Derry Monday afternoon, with a cocked eyebrow that suggested he knew it wouldn’t happen.chanel outlet (MORE: “Romney Unscathed in Twin New Hampshire Debates.”) “Governor Romney basically lives here and has spent, as all candidates hve, a lot of money on television. We didn??t have it,” Santorum said. “Look, Ron Paul has run here about 17 times.cheap gucci belts To do as well as him, I??m not sure that??s possible, but if we do, it would be a huge win for us.?? The admission was a stark reversal from the hopeful note Santorum and his staff struck in the aftermath of Iowa. Santorum boasted that he had assembled an underrated organization in New Hampshire over the course of more than 30 visits, and aides, including campaign manager Mike Biundo, a New Hampshire native, said the former Pennsylvania Senator’s piety and economic populism would play well in a Northeastern state that is nearly 40% Catholic. (LIST: Top 10 Political Fashion Statements) But after boosting expectations in New Hampshire, Santorum risks failing to meet them.fake uggs His super PAC didn’t run television ads to compete with the Romney and Paul spots inundating the airwaves. Instead he relied solely on the same? retail formula that paid dividends in Iowa but was never likely to erase a massive deficit in New Hampshire. “Obviously there’s a short run up” between Iowa and New Hampshire he said, by way of acknowledging the blueprint wouldn’t pay off in time, particularly since questioners at his marathon town halls have zeroed in on Santorum’s stance on social issues and muddled his larger message. The result has been an awkward straddle, which saw Santorum spend Sunday in the Palmetto State and left him soft-pedaling expectations for New Hampshire after an initial burst of enthusiasm.fake louis vuitton shoes Though advisers argue otherwise, Santorum may have been better served jetting straight to South Carolina, which will play a crucial role in determining which candidate — if any –can unite social conservatives and Tea Partyers to foil Romney. A top Santorum adviser says the decision to play hard in New Hampshire was partly a function of the campaign’s strained finances: it made sense, says the aide, to capitalize on the momentum and free media afforded by the pack of national press descending on the Granite State, particularly since Santorum lacked the money to run television ads widely. The campaign also felt that any candidate vying to be the GOP’s national standard-bearer had to prove their mettle on inhospitable terrain rather than cherry-picking his battles. In the race for third, the only candidate finishing strong is Jon Huntsman, whose long tour of New Hampshire has yielded teeming crowds and an uptick in the polls during the primary’s last days.fake ugg boots Having tethered his hopes to a strong finish here, Huntsman has been coy about defining what constitutes success, allowing only that he must “beat market expectations” but refusing to define them. Nate Silver’s latest projections Monday night gave Huntsman 16.5% of the vote, behind only Romney and Paul. That would almost certainly be enough to propel Huntsman forward in the race even if he’s unlikely to repeat such success elsewhere barring an injection of cash from his billionaire father.fake louis vuitton shoes Also in the mix is Newt Gingrich, who’s conceded that he’s unlikely to stymie Romney or spring an upset in New Hampshire and is looking ahead on the calendar. After finishing fourth in Iowa, a similar showing would be enough, Gingrich said, to carry him into the Jan. 21 primary in South Carolina, where a super PAC allied with his campaign has bought more than $3 million in ad time to bludgeon Romney. “We’ll win South Carolina,” Gingrich told ABC News on Monday.replica gucci shoes “That’s my must-win state.” (PHOTOS: Road to New Hampshire: The Primary Campaign’s Final Days in Photos) The same is true for the wounded Rick Perry, who skipped campaigning in New Hampshire to head straight for the Palmetto State, which he likened to his Alamo. Santorum also sees the South Carolina primary, which one of his advisers told TIME would be a “bloody” battle, as critical to his goal of emerging as the primary alternative to Romney. “We have to finish really well there,” he said Monday.replica chanel shoes Particularly since his hopes for finishing really well in New Hampshire have faded.
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Dixville Notch casts its votes.replica gucci shoes Veteran scribe Walter Shapiro is bored. Campaign organization still matters, guards against wild swings. Is Huntsman having his moment? The Union Leader makes its final front-page case against Romney..chanel outlet. and takes his “firing” line out of context. The story behind the anti-Bain movie. Gingrich has his own private equity past.gucci outlet online Romney holds double-digit lead in Florida. He’ll divide and conquer. Most Republican are unsatisfied with their field. How liberals may warm to Lew.louis vuitton belts David Remnick on Jodi Kantor’s The Obamas. And this homeless man better knows what’s on TV than the Republican presidential candidates.
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The New Hampshire primary is being held on Tuesday, but the bigger news for connoisseurs of campaign ads is that the Republican race has moved from the “contrast” phase to the “negative” phase to the “from Hell’s heart, I stab at thee” phase.handbags louis vuitton The latter was foreshadowed post-Iowa, when Newt Gingrich, having been the target of a massive negative-ad campaign by Mitt Romney??friendly super PACs, essentially vowed that he was going to load up some paint cannons and aim them at Romney. Over the weekend, Gingrich got a multimillion cash infusion from a casino magnate, and planned to run a series of ads drawing on a documentary, “When Mitt Romney Came to Town,” about Romney’s history of taking over companies with his private-equity firm, Bain. A trailer from the film appears above. Holy crap, is it vicious.replica louis vuitton The documentary excerpts mimic a lot of standard devices in political attack ads. (When Romney comes to town, the first thing he does, apparently, is turn on a giant machine that sucks the color from the sky and makes the world black and white.) But it’s the angle of attack that is pretty stunning for a Republican primary debate: the pro-Gingrich forces have made an incendiary attack on “corporate raider” Romney that I would not be surprised to see come from a Democratic presidential campaign, perhaps one with Elizabeth Warren at the head of the ticket. The line of attack contrasts the positives of American capitalism ?? small business, people providing for their families ?? with the “greed” of Bain, which, the film argues, tore apart companies and ruined lives while producing nothing but profit.handbags louis vuitton (There are none-too-subtle images of cash clenched in manicured fists and, my personal favorite, Romney grinning next to a line of rising-profits bars, red like the flames of hell.) An unseen figure opens a metal briefcase full of cash. A woman warns a friend that she will get on a hit list for criticizing Romney. “Nothing was spared,” the narration says.gucci outlet online “Nothing mattered but greed.” I have no idea whether this attack campaign can help Gingrich, or even slow Romney’s march to the nomination. But should Gingrich need to retire some campaign debt in the future, he might want to recoup some of it by licensing these spots straight to the Obama campaign.
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I expect that it will have little bearing on the outcome of the Republican primaries, but I was surprised by the conversation in last night’s debate about the great Hollywood vs.louis vuitton belts Silicon Valley brawl underway in Washington over online piracy. You can read my piece from this morning for a primer on the debate over what is shorthanded as SOPA (the Stop Online Piracy Act). But the gist is that the big record and movie studios are pressing Congress for new powers to crack down on copyright theft by piracy websites that allow users to, for instance, download free copies of Mission: Impossible: Ghost Protocol. In response, the Silicon Valley-based dot-com world is warning that the remedies under discussion are ill conceived, authoritarian and will cause severe unintended economic consequences.louis vuitton outlet online Right now Congress has slammed the brakes on SOPA and its Senate counterpart bill, the Protect IP Act (PIPA), and its advocates are regrouping to see what they might salvage. When the issue came up last night, I thought the GOP candidates (save perhaps the libertarian Ron Paul) might reflexively talk tough about stamping out copyright theft, and express support for some kind of strong legislative action. In part I was thinking politics: Hollywood execs and music moguls are not traditional Republican allies, to be sure, but the GOP-friendly U.S.louis vuitton speedy Chamber of Commerce and influential CEOs like Rupert Murdoch are pushing hard for the legislation. (Here’s where I dutifully note that TIME’s corporate parent, Time Warner, is doing the same.) But there’s also principle: Republicans tend to put a high priority on law and order, often subordinating other issues like civil rights or personal freedom. Think of the stop-and-search debate in urban areas, the opposition to illegal immigrant “amnesty,” or homeland security measures like wiretapping.chanel handbags for sale And yet not one of the four candidates on stage expressed support for SOPA/PIPA. “I’m standing for freedom,” declared Mitt Romney, who called the bills “far too threatening to freedom of speech and movement of information across the Internet.” Newt Gingrich allowed that he is still “weighing” the issue, but then ripped Hollywood’s pro-regulation position: “The idea that we’re going to preemptively have the government start censoring the Internet on behalf of giant corporations’ economic interests strikes me as exactly the wrong thing to do.” Also citing “freedom,” Ron Paul boasted that he was the first Republican to oppose the law.louis vuitton belts Only Rick Santorum, who sounded a little startled by the consensus forming around him, gave the entertainment industry’s position any real credence, and nodded to the traditional law-and-order line: “The Internet is not a free zone where anybody can do anything they want to do and trample the rights of other people…. We have laws, and the respect of law and the rule of law is an important thing.” Yet even Santorum made clear that he doesn’t support the law, which he said “goes too far.” I don’t have a neat explanation for this consensus.fake uggs You might theorize that the candidates have concluded that there’s more money to be raised from Silicon Valley than from Hollywood. And that Internet giants like Facebook and Twitter have enough public support and influence to inflict real harm on a candidate who crosses them. (And that rebuking Rupert Murdoch is hard, but ticking off Chris Dodd is fun.) Or perhaps the candidates were persuaded by the argument that SOPA really was poorly crafted, and sure to cause collateral damage.loui vuitton And that, when in doubt, the system should not err on the side of protecting intellectual property but rather defending the autonomy of the Internet–in which case we’re witnessing a defining moment of political philosophy. All that being said, this debate isn’t over. SOPA’s chief sponsor has withdrawn his bill, and its opponents are celebrating. But Ron Paul almost surely got it right last night when he issued a warning to his audience: “This bill is not going to pass,” he said.ugg boots outlet “But watch out for the next one.
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Orangeburg, South Carolina Jim Ulmer has a problem.louis vuitton belts Hundreds of people are crammed into a strip mall in Orangeburg to hear Newt Gingrich speak, and the man of the moment is nowhere to be found. Which leaves a handful of local Republican officials–including Ulmer, the Orangeburg County GOP chairman–to warm up the fidgety crowd. ??Is he here yet??? Ulmer jokes. ??I??ve run out of spit.louis vuitton handbags for sale?? And so Ulmer gamely musters a few Strom Thurmond stories to tide over the anxious crowd. Hugh Weathers, the state??s agriculture commissioner ?? and, until this week, a Rick Perry supporter ?? leads the crowd through the National Anthem. By now a Newt chant has started and sputtered, and the crowd is tiring of the warm-up acts. ??Is he here yet??? Ulmer asks again, a little weakly this time.louis vuitton neverfull Gingrich arrived 50 minutes late to a reception befitting a front runner. In a hairpin turn, that??s what he??s become in South Carolina, just a week after the pundits he loves to pummel were dancing on the grave of his campaign. On the eve of the pivotal Palmetto State primary, three new polls showed Gingrich leapfrogging Mitt Romney on the strength of forceful debate performances, including six-point leads in two. His surge sets up a Saturday showdown that could either all but wrap up the Republican nomination for Romney or usher the bruising battle into a new, uncertain phase.cheap gucci belts As of Friday night, the two candidates’ schedules had both of them appearing at the same time Saturday morning in a Greenville restaurant. For Gingrich, this is where the fun starts. At a massive town hall here Friday afternoon, Gingrich told the overflow crowd that a win in South Carolina would propel him to the GOP nomination. ??I do believe if I win tomorrow, I will go on to become your nominee,?? he said.cheap gucci belts Even Chuck Norris hopped aboard the Gingrich wagon and endorsed the former House speaker. With the same flair he used to flay debate moderators this week, Gingrich gleefully blistered President Obama and Romney, sometimes in the same breath. He assailed Obama??s Administration for its weakness and urged Republicans to nominate a conservative capable of drawing a sharp contrast with the President. ??We??re going to take the first big step toward ensuring that a conservative is nominated for President of the United States,?? he said.louis vuitton backpack for sale “I hope to win South Carolina, you know, God willing we’ll win. And tomorrow night will be very interesting and then Florida will be even more interesting.?? Interesting probably isn??t the word Romney would use privately. On Friday, he and his aides sought to downplay expectations after a week that began with a sizable lead.cheap gucci belts ??Frankly, to be in a neck-and-neck race at this last moment is kind of exciting,?? Romney told reporters during a campaign stop in Gilbert, S.C. For the third day in a row, he enlisted surrogates to skewer Gingrich as an unreliable leader. In a call with reporters, Congressman Jeff Flake called Gingrich ??the granddaddy of earmarks.fake uggs?? Mimicking the pressure Gingrich applied on Romney??s unreleased tax returns, the former Massachusetts governor urged Gingrich to make public files from the congressional ethics investigation that ended with Gingrich agreeing to pay a $300,000 fine in 1997. Gingrich smiled when asked about Romney??s comments. ??Don??t you love these guys? He doesn??t release anything,?? Gingrich said, alluding to the controversy over Romney??s tax returns.? ??He doesn??t answer anything.gucci outlet online He??s even confused about whether he??ll ever release anything, and then he goes to pick a fight??? Unlike Romney, Gingrich relishes this sort of political pugilism. What he doesn??t enjoy quite as much is tending to the quotidian duties that make successful campaigns hum. On the last day before the first-in-the-South primary, he waved away a question about his ability to compete with Romney over a protracted campaign. ??Well, we seem to be,?? he said.loui vuitton The reporter pointed out Romney??s sizable fundraising advantage. ??Not financially. You didn??t say financially. You said, ‘Can I compete?’?? Propelled by forceful debate performances, Gingrich has demonstrated an ability to convince Republican voters that his checkered past isn??t as important as his ability to shepherd the country into an uncertain future.cheap gucci belts ??We have big problems, and big problems take big thinkers,?? Weathers, the state??s agricultural commissioner, told voters in Orangeburg. Being a big thinker may not be enough. For years, competing for the nomination has required mastering the rules of a game that involves attention to fundraising, assembling an organization, logistical rigor and message discipline. Gingrich drips with disdain for everything but the ideas, and suggests the blueprint is out of date.cheap gucci belts ??The Washington consultant model is that you have to measure a campaign by its finances, because that??s how consultants get paid,?? Gingrich said, suggesting it was no longer necessary in the age of the Internet. ??Look at Rick Santorum??s campaign in Iowa.?? But Santorum relied on a traditional retail model, whereas Gingrich??s choices can be bewildering. After canceling his first event, a sparsely attended GOP conference in Charleston, he held his first event Friday at a children??s hospital, of all places, where bemused staffers watched warily as a jumbled mass of media crowded the lobby awaiting his arrival.handbags louis vuitton After a tour, the Gingrichs headed to the seventh floor for a photo op in a children??s playroom, the sort of place where bright colors carpets fought valiantly to cheer up a space that could never be cheerful. Surrounded by at least 50 reporters and cameramen, Callista??accompanied by her protagonist, Ellis the Elephant–read her children??s book to four kids, two of whom seemed fixated on the rubber dinosaurs and plastic castles just out of their reach. No one but Gingrich would kick off a critical day of campaigning at a stop where the only eligible voters were the staffers paid to be there. But he enjoyed it.handbags louis vuitton “We talked about autism, Alzheimer??s, traumatic brain injury, cardiology ?? things that really interest me,” he told me. Gingrich is also interested in cultivating his reputation for doing things differently. Asked during Thursday night??s debate what he would change about his campaign in hindsight, he said: ??I would skip the opening three months where I hired regular consultants and tried to be a normal candidate. And just go straight to being a big ideas big solutions internet-based campaign from day one.louis vuitton outlet online It just didn??t work, it??s not who I am, I??m not capable of being a traditional candidate.?? But conceding Romney the perks of a traditional candidacy??including his huge fundraising edge??may be a mistake born of hubris. Even if Gingrich wins on Saturday, Romney takes his pile of cash money and organization clout into Florida, where he??s expected to prevail before the race pivots to a series of caucus states where Gingrich will face a massive organizational deficit–he won??t be on the ballot in Virginia, and the debate calendar will thin as the race drags on. For now, though, Gingrich has convinced South Carolina conservatives like Jim Ulmer that he is the right man for a rocky moment.louis vuitton backpack for sale ??Folks know the future of the Republic is at stake,?? Ulmer says. ??A lot of us think he??s up to it.
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